← Manta Trading Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Manta Trading Store Championship
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.1%
avg ELO -7.4 per match
expected value
42.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1275
· median 1275
· range 1275–1275
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1063
Q1 1262
Q3 1453
1549
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
